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- Title
Bayesian inference of earthquake rupture models using polynomial chaos expansion.
- Authors
Cruz-Jiménez, Hugo; Li, Guotu; Mai, Paul Martin; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Knio, Omar M.
- Abstract
In this paper, we employed polynomial chaos (PC) expansions to understand earthquake rupture model responses to random fault plane properties. A sensitivity analysis based on our PC surrogate model suggests that the hypocenter location plays a dominant role in peak ground velocity (PGV) responses, while elliptical patch properties only show secondary impact. In addition, the PC surrogate model is utilized for Bayesian inference of the most likely underlying fault plane configuration in light of a set of PGV observations from a ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE). A restricted sampling approach is also developed to incorporate additional physical constraints on the fault plane configuration and to increase the sampling efficiency.
- Subjects
SURFACE fault ruptures; BAYESIAN analysis; POLYNOMIAL chaos; SENSITIVITY analysis; EARTHQUAKES; MATHEMATICAL models
- Publication
Geoscientific Model Development, 2018, Vol 11, Issue 7, p3071
- ISSN
1991-959X
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.5194/gmd-11-3071-2018