We found a match
Your institution may have rights to this item. Sign in to continue.
- Title
Seismic precursors to the Whakaari 2019 phreatic eruption are transferable to other eruptions and volcanoes.
- Authors
Ardid, Alberto; Dempsey, David; Caudron, Corentin; Cronin, Shane
- Abstract
Volcanic eruptions that occur without warning can be deadly in touristic and populated areas. Even with real-time geophysical monitoring, forecasting sudden eruptions is difficult, because their precursors are hard to recognize and can vary between volcanoes. Here, we describe a general seismic precursor signal for gas-driven eruptions, identified through correlation analysis of 18 well-recorded eruptions in New Zealand, Alaska, and Kamchatka. The precursor manifests in the displacement seismic amplitude ratio between medium (4.5–8 Hz) and high (8–16 Hz) frequency tremor bands, exhibiting a characteristic rise in the days prior to eruptions. We interpret this as formation of a hydrothermal seal that enables rapid pressurization of shallow groundwater. Applying this model to the 2019 eruption at Whakaari (New Zealand), we describe pressurization of the system in the week before the eruption, and cascading seal failure in the 16 h prior to the explosion. Real-time monitoring for this precursor may improve short-term eruption warning systems at certain volcanoes. Volcanic eruptions that occur without warning can be deadly in touristic and populated areas. Using a machine learning approach, the authors here discover distinctive patterns hidden in the seismic signals of a number of New Zealand and Alaskan volcanoes, that occur before most of the eruptions studied.
- Subjects
NEW Zealand; KAMCHATKA Peninsula (Russia); ALASKA; VOLCANOES; MACHINE learning; STATISTICAL correlation; VOLCANIC eruptions
- Publication
Nature Communications, 2022, Vol 13, Issue 1, p1
- ISSN
2041-1723
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1038/s41467-022-29681-y