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- Title
Bayesian Estimation Under Informative Sampling with Unattenuated Dependence.
- Authors
Williams, Matthew R.; Savitsky, Terrance D.
- Abstract
An informative sampling design leads to unit inclusion probabilities that are correlated with the response variable of interest. However, multistage sampling designs may also induce higher order dependencies, which are ignored in the literature when establishing consistency of estimators for survey data under a condition requiring asymptotic independence among the unit inclusion probabilities. This paper constructs new theoretical conditions that guarantee that the pseudo-posterior, which uses sampling weights based on first order inclusion probabilities to exponentiate the likelihood, is consistent not only for survey designs which have asymptotic factorization, but also for survey designs that induce residual or unattenuated dependence among sampled units. The use of the surveyweighted pseudo-posterior, together with our relaxed requirements for the survey design, establish a wide variety of analysis models that can be applied to a broad class of survey data sets. Using the complex sampling design of the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, we demonstrate our new theoretical result on multistage designs characterized by a cluster sampling step that expresses withincluster dependence. We explore the impact of multistage designs and order based sampling.
- Subjects
BAYESIAN analysis; PROBABILITY theory; MARKOV chain Monte Carlo; ASYMPTOTIC distribution; DATA analysis
- Publication
Bayesian Analysis, 2020, Vol 15, Issue 1, p57
- ISSN
1936-0975
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1214/18-BA1143