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- Title
多情景下鄱阳湖滨湖区生态系统服务价值预测.
- Authors
刘志勇; 方朝阳; 蔡振饶; 李慧中; 夏阳; 陈浩
- Abstract
Ecosystem services value (ESV) is a essential indicator reflecting the well-being of regional ecosystem. To ex⁃ plore the laws of ESV evolution is of important interests of reference for formulation of the regional ecological protection and green development. In this study, the lakeside area of Poyang Lake being as a study area, therein the impacts of land-use changes on ESV were studied on the basis of land-use data of the years of 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2018, as well as the evalua⁃ tion done by use of the equivalent factor method. ESV of the study area in 2026 and 2034 was predicted with the help of FLUS model, and the difference of ESV between the two years under two different scenarios (the baseline scenario and ecological protection scenario) was analyzed. The findings of these studies suggested that from the period of 1990-2018, there appeared, on the whole, the increases of construction land and water-body areas in the lakeside of Poyang Lake, and the trend of decreas⁃ es of arable land, forestland, grassland and uncultivated land. The total ESV increased by 2.143 billion yuan during the study period, showing a fluctuating growth trend in general. Under the baseline scenario, compared with the land-use situation in 2018, the area of arable land, forestland and uncultured land decreased, and the area of construction land, water-body and grassland increased, especially, the increase of construction land, and according to the prediction, compared with 2018, ESV of 2026 and 2034 would decrease by 2.113 billion yuan and 4.138 billion yuan, respectively. Under the ecological protection scenario, compared with the baseline scenario, the expansion of construction land would slow down, while the area of forest⁃ land and uncultivated land increase. In 2026 and 2034, total ESV of the study area would be respectively 279.098 billion yuan and 279.243 billion yuan, namely, the increases of respectively 2.251 billion yuan and 4.421 billion yuan higher than under the baseline scenario. In conclusion, setting of the ecological red-line and building up key wetland reserves were of significant effects on increasing the total regional ESV; furthermore, the ecological protection red-line must be strictly implemented, and the protection of key wetlands be enhanced in future land development.
- Subjects
SUSTAINABLE development; FORESTS &; forestry; ARABLE land; ECOSYSTEM services; REAL estate development; GRASSLAND restoration
- Publication
Environmental Science & Technology (10036504), 2022, Vol 45, Issue 7, p218
- ISSN
1003-6504
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.19672/j.cnki.1003-6504.2545.21.338