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- Title
A Survival Prediction Nomogram for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Treated with Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy Followed by Surgery.
- Authors
Ding, Tianyan; Liu, Cantong; Huang, Binliang; Chu, Lingyu; Wei, Laifeng; Lin, Yiwei; Luo, Yun; Zhang, Biao; Hong, Chaoqun; Xu, Yiwei; Peng, Yuhui
- Abstract
Background: Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) followed by surgery is a component of the standard treatment for resectable locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), and the parameters for survival prediction are not clear yet. Our study aimed to construct a survival prediction nomogram for ESCC with NCRT followed by surgery. Methods: We analyzed hematological parameters and related-derivative indexes from 122 ESCC patients treated with NCRT followed by surgery. Univariate and multivariate Cox survival analyses were performed to identify independent prognostic factors to establish a nomogram and predict overall survival (OS). The predictive value of the nomogram for OS was evaluated by the concordance index (C-index), decision curve analysis (DCA), the clinical impact curve (CIC), net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Results: The pretreatment nutritional candidate, prognostic nutrition index, inflammation-related absolute monocyte count and TNM staging were entered into the nomogram for ESCC with NCRT followed by surgery. The C-index of the nomogram for OS was 0.790 (95% CI = 0.688– 0.893), which was higher than that of TNM staging (0.681; 95% CI = 0.565– 0.798, P = 0.026). The DCA, CIC, NRI, and IDI of the nomogram showed moderate improvement in predicting survival. Based on the cut point calculated according to the constructed nomogram, the high-risk group had poorer OS than that of the low-risk group (P < 0.05). Conclusion: A novel nomogram based on nutrition- and inflammation-related indicators might help predict the survival of ESCC treated with NCRT followed by surgery.
- Subjects
SQUAMOUS cell carcinoma; NOMOGRAPHY (Mathematics); OVERALL survival; PROGNOSIS; CHEMORADIOTHERAPY; MOHS surgery; LYMPHOCYTE count
- Publication
Cancer Management & Research, 2021, Vol 13, p7771
- ISSN
1179-1322
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.2147/CMAR.S329687