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- Title
Prediction of major depressive disorder onset in college students.
- Authors
Ebert, David D.; Buntrock, Claudia; Mortier, Philippe; Auerbach, Randy; Weisel, Kiona K.; Kessler, Ronald C.; Cuijpers, Pim; Green, Jennifer G.; Kiekens, Glenn; Nock, Matthew K.; Demyttenaere, Koen; Bruffaerts, Ronny
- Abstract
<bold>Background: </bold>Major depressive disorder (MDD) in college students is associated with substantial burden.<bold>Aims: </bold>To assess 1-year incidence of MDD among incoming freshmen and predictors of MDD-incidence in a representative sample of students.<bold>Method: </bold>Prospective cohort study of first-year college students (baseline: n = 2,519, 1-year follow-up: n = 958) RESULTS: The incidence of MDD within the first year of college was 6.9% (SE = 0.8). The most important individual-level predictors of onset were prior suicide plans and/or attempts (OR = 9.5). The strongest population-level baseline predictors were history of childhood-adolescent trauma, stressful experience in the past 12 months, parental psychopathology, and other 12-month mental disorder. Multivariate cross-validated prediction (cross-validated AUC = 0.73) suggest that 36.1% of incident MDD cases in a replication sample would occur among the 10% of students at highest predicted risk (24.5% predicted incidence in this highest-risk subgroup).<bold>Conclusions: </bold>Screening at college entrance is a promising strategy to identify students at risk of MDD onset, which may improve the development and deployment of targeted preventive interventions.
- Subjects
MENTAL depression; COLLEGE students; COLLEGE freshmen; AT-risk students; MENTAL illness
- Publication
Depression & Anxiety (1091-4269), 2019, Vol 36, Issue 4, p294
- ISSN
1091-4269
- Publication type
journal article
- DOI
10.1002/da.22867