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- Title
Land-use and land-cover change carbon emissions between 1901 and 2012 constrained by biomass observations.
- Authors
Wei Li; Ciais, Philippe; Shushi Peng; Chao Yue; Yilong Wang; Thurner, Martin; Saatchi, Sassan S.; Arneth, Almut; Avitabile, Valerio; Carvalhais, Nuno; Harper, Anna B.; Etsushi Kato; Koven, Charles; Liu, Yi Y.; Nabel, Julia E. M. S.; Yude Pan; Pongratz, Julia; Poulter, Benjamin; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Santoro, Maurizio
- Abstract
The use of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to estimate CO2 emissions from land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) offers a new window to account for spatial and temporal details of emissions, and for ecosystem processes affected by LULCC. One drawback of DGVMs however is their large uncertainty. Here, we propose a new method of using satellite- and inventory-based biomass observations to constrain historical cumulative LULCC emissions (EcLUC) from an ensemble of nine DGVMs based on emerging relationships between simulated vegetation biomass and EcLUC. This method is applicable at global and regional scale. Compared to the large range of EcLUC in the original ensemble (94 to 273PgC) during 1901–2012, current biomass observations allow us to derive a new best estimate of 155±50 (1-σ Gaussian error) PgC. The constrained LULCC emissions are higher than prior DGVM values in tropical regions, but significantly lower in North America. Our approach of constraining cumulative LULCC emissions based on biomass observations reduces the uncertainty of the historical carbon budget, and can also be applied to evaluate the impact of land-based mitigation activities.
- Subjects
LAND use; LAND cover; EMISSIONS (Air pollution); BIOMASS; ECOSYSTEM dynamics; SIMULATION methods &; models
- Publication
Biogeosciences Discussions, 2017, p1
- ISSN
1810-6277
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.5194/bg-2017-186