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- Title
Risk assessment for optimal drought management of an integrated water resources system using a genetic algorithm .
- Authors
Merabtene, Tarek; Kawamura, Akira; Jinno, Kenji; Olsson, Jonas
- Abstract
Reports that a decision support system (DSS) is developed and applied to assess the susceptibility of water supply systems to droughts, and to aid decision-makers in determining optimal supply strategies. Integration of fundamental modules for water resources management: (1) a real time rainfall-runoff forecasting model enhanced by Kalman filtering, (2) a water demand forecast model, and (3) a reservoir operation model; Simulation and optimization procedures for the reservoir operation model; Optimization technique, based on genetic algorithms, that introduces distinct features; Risk-based measures of system performance, termed reliability, resiliency and vulnerability, that are combined into a global risk index, referred to as the drought risk index (DRI); DRI that serves as the objective function to be minimized during the search for the optimal operation; Convergence of the algorithm that is improved by retaining only those solutions with DRI values smaller than the maximum acceptable risk; DSS that is applied to the water resources system in Fukuoka City, western Japan; DSS that is believed to be an efficient tool for the assessment of a sequence of water supply scenarios, leading to the improved utilization of existing water resources during drought.
- Subjects
JAPAN; DECISION support systems; MANAGEMENT information systems; DROUGHTS; WATER supply
- Publication
Hydrological Processes, 2002, Vol 16, Issue 11, p2189
- ISSN
0885-6087
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1002/hyp.1150