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- Title
Probabilistic Numerical Modeling of Compound Flooding Caused by Tropical Storm Matthew Over a Data‐Scarce Coastal Environment.
- Authors
Zhang, Ying; Najafi, Mohammad Reza
- Abstract
The passage of a tropical storm, as the main driver of storm surge and high waves in many coastal regions, can also generate heavy rainfall and cause river overflow. The resulting combination of riverine, pluvial, and coastal flood hazard can result in catastrophic losses particularly in densely populated coastal environments. In this study, we characterize compound flooding caused by Tropical Storm Matthew and assess the significance and associated uncertainties of multiple contributing factors over a data‐scarce coastal region. A hydrological model combined with a simplified two‐dimensional hydrodynamic model are set up and validated to investigate the compounding effects of storm tide, wave runup, rainfall, and river overflow at the southern coast of Saint Lucia in the Caribbean Sea. Pléiades‐1 and Sentinel‐1 satellite imageries are used to determine the flood‐impacted areas. The analyses are performed based on deterministic and probabilistic approaches and the effects of uncertain boundary conditions and model parameters are investigated. Results show that the individual analysis of flood hazards, in isolation, can lead to substantial underestimation of flood risks. Heavy rainfall and wave runup are the most significant contributors to compound flooding in Saint Lucia. In addition, the interactions between seawater and streamflow can exacerbate riverine flood hazards particularly upstream of the river mouth. Communities in western Vieux Fort, and the Hewanorra International Airport, have high exposure to compound flooding, which is projected to intensify under climate change. Key Points: We set up and validate a 2‐D flood model to study the compounding effects of pluvial, riverine, and coastal (storm tide and wave) floodingWe characterize the contribution of individual flood drivers to compound flooding, the effects of different forcings, and the corresponding uncertaintiesWe assess the impacts of compound flooding on communities and infrastructure facilities to provide insights for flood mitigation strategies
- Subjects
SAINT Lucia; TROPICAL storms; STORM surges; SENTINEL-1 (Artificial satellite); FLOOD risk; FLOODS; REMOTE-sensing images; TWO-dimensional models
- Publication
Water Resources Research, 2020, Vol 56, Issue 10, p1
- ISSN
0043-1397
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1029/2020WR028565