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- Title
Statistical detection and modeling of the over-dispersion of winter storm occurrence.
- Authors
Raschke, M.
- Abstract
In this communication, I improve the detection and modeling of the over-dispersion of winter storm occurrence. For this purpose, the generalized Poisson distribution and the Bayesian information criterion are introduced; the latter is used for statistical model selection. Moreover, I replace the frequently used dispersion statistics by an over-dispersion parameter which does not depend on the considered return period of storm events. These models and methods are applied in order to properly detect the over-dispersion in winter storm data for Germany, carrying out a joint estimation of the distribution models for different samples.
- Subjects
DISPERSION (Atmospheric chemistry); WINTER storms; POISSON distribution; BAYESIAN analysis; STATISTICAL models
- Publication
Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences, 2015, Vol 15, Issue 8, p1757
- ISSN
1561-8633
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.5194/nhess-15-1757-2015