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- Title
How variable is recruitment for exploited marine fishes? A hierarchical model for testing life history theory.
- Authors
Thorson, James T.; Jensen, Olaf P.; Zipkin, Elise F.; Rose, Kenneth
- Abstract
Recruitment often varies substantially in fish populations, and residual variability may have serial autocorrelation due to environmental effects even after accounting for a stock-recruitment relationship. However, the likely magnitude of variability and autocorrelation in recruitment has yet to be formally estimated. We therefore developed a hierarchical model for recruitment variability and autocorrelation and applied it to data for 154 fish populations. Results were similar when using either the Ricker or Beverton-Holt stock-recruitment model, and showed that autocorrelated recruitment has a marginal standard deviation of 0.74 (SD = 0.35) and a mean autocorrelation of 0.43 (SD = 0.28) when predicting for an unobserved taxonomic order. Estimates differed somewhat among taxonomic orders and stocks, and also supported a hypothesized positive relationship between age at maturity and autocorrelation in recruitment. Our results can be used as a Bayesian prior for recruitment variability in models for data-poor stocks and to distinguish recruitment from other process errors in models for data-rich stocks. Estimates can also be used in the design of future simulation models and management strategy evaluations and in theoretical research regarding life history variation.
- Subjects
MARINE fish development; TAXONOMY; AUTOCORRELATION (Statistics); FISH stocking; STANDARD deviations; FISHERY management
- Publication
Canadian Journal of Fisheries & Aquatic Sciences, 2014, Vol 71, Issue 7, p973
- ISSN
0706-652X
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1139/cjfas-2013-0645