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- Title
A Summary of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Center Proton Event Forecast Performance and Skill.
- Authors
Bain, H. M.; Steenburgh, R. A.; Onsager, T. G.; Stitely, E. M.
- Abstract
The effects of solar radiation storms at Earth are felt across a number of technology‐based industries. Energetic particles present during these storms impact electrical components on spacecraft, disrupt high frequency radio communications, and pose a radiation risk for passengers and crew on polar flight routes, as well as for astronauts. An essential aspect of space weather forecasting is therefore to predict the occurrence and properties of a solar proton event before it occurs. In this study, we review radiation storm products issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) during Solar Cycles 23 and 24. These include three‐day probabilistic proton event forecasts and short‐term Warning and Alert hazard products. We present performance metrics and forecast skill scores for SWPC probabilistic forecasts and Warning products, which can be used as a benchmark for assessing the performance of radiation storm forecast models. Plain Language Summary: Energetic events occurring at the Sun, such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections, can accelerate protons, electrons and ions to high energies. These energetic particles can travel towards Earth where they are observed as a solar radiation storm. These storms can impact a number of technology‐based systems and industries. For example, the energetic particles present during these storms impact electrical components on spacecraft, disrupt high frequency radio communications, and pose a radiation risk for passengers and crew on polar flight routes, as well as for astronauts. An essential aspect of space weather forecasting is therefore to predict the occurrence and properties of a solar proton event before it occurs. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) issues space weather forecasts for solar radiation storms. In this study, we compare these forecasts with observations to determine how accurate the forecasts were. In particular the paper reviews forecasts between January 1996 and December 2019, a time period covering the last two Solar Cycles. The results of this paper can be used to test new forecasting models to determine if they would be capable of improving SWPC forecasts. Key Points: For Solar Cycle 24, Space Weather Prediction Center day 1 probabilistic proton forecasts have a Brier Skill Score of 0.25 over persistenceThe ≥10 MeV proton Warnings have a Probability of Detection (POD) of 91% and a False Alarm Ratio (FAR) of 24% with a median lead time of 88 minThe ≥100 MeV proton Warnings have a POD of 53% and a of FAR 38% with a median lead time of 10 min
- Subjects
SOLAR activity; SOLAR radiation; UNITED States. National Oceanic &; Atmospheric Administration; WEATHER forecasting; RADIATION
- Publication
Space Weather: The International Journal of Research & Applications, 2021, Vol 19, Issue 7, p1
- ISSN
1539-4956
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1029/2020SW002670