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- Title
Possibility of mpox viral transmission and control from high-risk to the general population: a modeling study.
- Authors
Yang, Shiting; Guo, Xiaohao; Zhao, Zeyu; Abudunaibi, Buasiyamu; Zhao, Yunkang; Rui, Jia; Wang, Yao; Song, Wentao; Wei, Hongjie; Chen, Tianmu
- Abstract
Background: Mpox is an emerging infectious disease that is now a global hazard. The strategies for preventing and controlling mpox should be further investigated in terms of transmission characteristics, infection risk among different populations, and ideal therapeutic approaches. Methods: A multi-group dynamic model was used to quantify the transmissibility of mpox. We further analyzed the transmission risk from men who have sex with men (MSM) to non-MSM and evaluated the effects of three intervention measures, including community-based prevention, early detection, and vaccination. Results: The median value of effective reproduction number (Reff) and probability of contact via a single contact (q) among MSM worldwide is 3.11 (interquartile range [IQR]: 2.82–5.57) and 2.15% (IQR: 1.95–3.84%). We found that the cumulative incidence rate of non-MSM is much lower than that of MSM (< 1/2048) when the possibility of infection (including the percentage of high-risk behaviors of contact degree [C] and q) was lowered to less than 1 in 100,000. When comparing the three intervention measures, if we want to control the cumulative incidence rate to 5.96 × 10–8 we need to increase the vaccine coverage to 81% or reduce the transmission rate factor (Cq) to 70% or shorten the transmission period to 74%. Conclusions: Mpox has high transmissibility in MSM, which required minimize the risk of infection and exposure to high-risk populations. Community prevention and control is the top priority of interventions to contain the spread of mpox.
- Subjects
MONKEYPOX; VIRAL transmission; EMERGING infectious diseases; VACCINATION coverage
- Publication
BMC Infectious Diseases, 2023, Vol 23, Issue 1, p1
- ISSN
1471-2334
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1186/s12879-023-08083-5