We found a match
Your institution may have rights to this item. Sign in to continue.
- Title
A Comparison of Preseason Forecasting Methods for Returns of Two British Columbia Sockeye Salmon Stocks.
- Authors
NOAKES, D. J.; WELCH, D. W.; HENDERSON, M.; MANSFIELD, E.
- Abstract
Preseason forecasts of salmon returns are crucial to the management of coastal Pacific salmon fisheries. Forecasts are used by both fishery managers and industry to plan harvest strategies for the coming season. Forecasts are also of considerable importance in deciding the allocation of catch among different areas and user groups. This paper outlines several models currently used to generate preseason forecasts of salmon returns. In addition, several forecasting models that have proven useful for modeling other resources are presented. The ability of these models to produce accurate forecasts was tested with data from fisheries for sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka in the Adams and Chilko rivers, British Columbia. Results of the forecasting study indicated that simple time-series models may provide more accurate forecasts of run size than currently used methods, such as Ricker stock-recruitment curves. In addition, naive combinations of forecasts from the competing models appear to perform at least as well as any single model. For both river systems, the commonly used sibling model performed poorly. On a gross level, the value of the differences in forecasting accuracy between the models is on the order of Can$30 million/year.
- Publication
North American Journal of Fisheries Management, 1990, Vol 10, Issue 1, p46
- ISSN
0275-5947
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1577/1548-8675(1990)010<0046:ACOPFM>2.3.CO;2