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- Title
Elicitation by design in ecology: using expert opinion to inform priors for Bayesian statistical models.
- Authors
Choy, Samantha Low; O'Leary, Rebecca; Mengersen, Kerrie
- Abstract
Bayesian statistical modeling has several benefits within an ecological context. In particular, when observed data are limited in sample size or representativeness, then the Bayesian framework provides a mechanism to combine observed data with other "'prior" information. Prior information may be obtained from earlier studies, or in their absence, from expert knowledge. This use of the Bayesian framework reflects the scientific "learning cycle." where prior or initial estimates are updated when new data become available. In this paper we outline a framework for statistical design of expert elicitation processes for quantifying such expert knowledge, in a form suitable for input as prior information into Bayesian models. We identify six key elements: determining the purpose and motivation for using prior information; specifying the relevant expert knowledge available: formulating the statistical model; designing effective and efficient numerical encoding; managing uncertainty; and designing a practiced elicitation protocol. We demonstrate this framework applies to a variety of situations, with two examples from the ecological literature and three from our experience. Analysis of these examples reveals several recurring important issues affecting practical design of elicitation in ecological problems.
- Subjects
BAYESIAN analysis; STATISTICAL sampling; ENVIRONMENTAL literature; BIODIVERSITY; ANIMAL species; HABITATS; ANIMAL communities; EXPERIMENTAL design; ECOLOGICAL research
- Publication
Ecology, 2009, Vol 90, Issue 1, p265
- ISSN
0012-9658
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1890/07-1886.1