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- Title
Climate Change Will Increase Biomass Proportion of Global Forest Carbon Stocks Under an SSP5–8.5 Climate Trajectory.
- Authors
Mekonnen, Zelalem A.; Riley, William J.
- Abstract
A large amount of carbon is stored in global forests. However, the fraction of carbon stored as plant biomass versus soil organic carbon (SOC) varies among forest types, and potential changes over the 21st century are uncertain. Here, we used extensive data derived from inventories and remote sensing and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to examine the current and 21st century dynamics in the proportion of biomass and SOC across global forests. We found that precipitation, elevation, soil, and wildfire were the primary controls of these differences in carbon pools. Under the SSP5–8.5 climate scenario, CMIP6 models project that the ratio of biomass to ecosystem carbon in global forests will increase across the 21st century, with the largest increases in boreal forests (95 ± 37%) compared to moist tropical forests (16 ± 15%). Changes in forest carbon pools resulting in greater biomass fraction will affect disturbance, and ecosystem carbon and energy balances, all of which interact with the climate system. Plain Language Summary: The fraction of carbon stored as plant biomass versus soil organic carbon varies among forest types. The extent to which biomass and soil carbon pools may change over the 21st century is uncertain. In this study, we examined current and 21st century dynamics in the proportion of biomass and soil carbon across global forests. Our results show that global forest carbon pools exhibit spatial heterogeneity driven by local differences in climatic and environmental factors. Over the 21st century, we showed that the ratio of biomass to ecosystem carbon in global forests will increase, with the largest increases in boreal forests and lowest increases in moist tropical forests. These changes in forest ecosystem carbon pools have important implications for global ecosystem carbon balances and the climate system. Key Points: Global forest carbon pools exhibit spatial heterogeneity driven by local differences in climatic and environmental factorsAnnual precipitation, elevation, soil, and wildfire were the primary controls of these differences in forest carbon pool fractionsThe ratio of biomass to ecosystem carbon in global forests will increase across the 21st century
- Subjects
BIOMASS; CLIMATE change; PLANT biomass; TROPICAL forests; CARBON; WILDFIRES
- Publication
Geophysical Research Letters, 2023, Vol 50, Issue 23, p1
- ISSN
0094-8276
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1029/2023GL104612