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- Title
A semi-probabilistic procedure for developing societal risk function.
- Authors
Tsang, Hing-Ho; Daniell, James E.; Wenzel, Friedemann; Werner, Amelie C.
- Abstract
Seismic risk is typically quantified probabilistically for a single asset or evaluated through regional loss assessment for selected earthquake events. Ideally, a recurrence relationship for a loss quantity, economic loss or casualty, can be obtained for risk-informed decision-making. This can be achieved by a fully stochastic approach, for which a large amount of input information is required, whilst there is usually a lack of transparency that might hinder repeatability of the outputs. Hence, the objective of this paper is to introduce a simple and unambiguous procedure for developing parametric societal risk function based on rigorous loss modelling of response-specific probabilistic scenarios. This is then illustrated for the Greater Melbourne Region with fatality as the loss quantity. The proposed semi-probabilistic procedure can be extended to other loss quantities, as well as evaluating societal risk of other natural hazards or multiple hazards.
- Subjects
AUSTRALIA; STOCHASTIC systems; EARTHQUAKE hazard analysis; HAZARD mitigation; EARTHQUAKES
- Publication
Natural Hazards, 2018, Vol 92, Issue 2, p943
- ISSN
0921-030X
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s11069-018-3233-z