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- Title
A decision model for the watch-and-wait strategy in systemic sclerosisassociated interstitial lung disease.
- Authors
Hyun Mi Kwon; Eun Ha Kang; Jin Kyun Park; Dong Jin Go; Eun Young Lee; Yeong Wook Song; Hyun-Ju Lee; Eun Bong Lee
- Abstract
Objective. To develop a decision model to identify SSc-associated interstitial lung disease (ILD) patients who are eligible for watchful waiting at ILD diagnosis. Methods. One hundred and fifty-one SSc-ILD patients who received medical care at Seoul National University Hospital from 1986 to 2013 were enrolled in this retrospective cohort study. ILD was diagnosed by chest CT. Patients with and without immunosuppressive treatment were compared in terms of char- acteristics at ILD diagnosis to identify distinguishing variables. After multivariate analysis, a decision model for watchful waiting was formulated. Its validity was assessed by comparing the survival of patients whose management in real practice did and did not accord with the management recommended by the model. Results. The untreated group had better survival than the immunosuppressive treatment group (P = 0.0316, by log-rank test). The untreated group was less likely to have gastrointestinal involvement (P = 0.008) and pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), as determined by echocardiography) (P = 0.015) and more likely to have favourable initial forced vital capacity (P = 0.0004), favourable initial lung diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide (P = 0.0002) and a low CT grade (P<0.001). The final watchful waiting decision model included lack of PAH and limited ILD extent on CT. Application of the model to the cohort revealed that patients who were eligible for watchful waiting (as determined by the model) and underwent this management strategy had better survival than eligible patients who underwent immuno-suppressive treatment (P = 0.048, by log-rank test). Conclusion. Watchful waiting may be effective for SSc-ILD patients who have minimal pulmonary involvement on CT and lack PAH on echocardiography at baseline.
- Subjects
SOUTH Korea; INTERSTITIAL lung diseases; ACADEMIC medical centers; BLOOD testing; CONFIDENCE intervals; DECISION making; ECHOCARDIOGRAPHY; IMMUNOSUPPRESSIVE agents; LONGITUDINAL method; MULTIVARIATE analysis; RESEARCH evaluation; RESEARCH funding; PULMONARY function tests; RISK assessment; STRATEGIC planning; SURVIVAL; SYSTEMIC scleroderma; LOGISTIC regression analysis; SOCIAL services case management; RETROSPECTIVE studies; SEVERITY of illness index; DATA analysis software; DESCRIPTIVE statistics; KAPLAN-Meier estimator; LOG-rank test; ODDS ratio; DISEASE complications; THERAPEUTICS
- Publication
Rheumatology, 2015, Vol 54, Issue 10, p1792
- ISSN
1462-0324
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1093/rheumatology/kev121