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- Title
Reliability Prediction for Factory Casualty using Grey System Theory.
- Authors
Zhiguo Li; Bo Hao; Wengang Yan
- Abstract
To reduce the casualty rate in factories, grey system theory (GST) is used to predict safety targets. First, the reliability-based dynamic model and differential equation of grey model GM(1, 1) are established on the basis of GST. Then, the sequence results are accumulated and inverse accumulated further, thus further revealing the change law. According to the analysis results of relative error q, variance ratio C, and small error probability P, the accuracy test for the prediction model indicates that the GM(1, 1) has high prediction reliability and that the prediction precision is a good rank (P > 0.95, C < 0.35). Finally, the prediction results show that the predicted casualty number was 18.2-48.3 in 2017, 35.1-72 in 2018, and 67.9-107.5 in 2019, and both the casualty rate and casualty number will increase over the next three years. The findings in this paper will help guide the establishment of factory safety targets.
- Publication
International Journal of Performability Engineering, 2020, Vol 16, Issue 6, p866
- ISSN
0973-1318
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.23940/ijpe.20.06.p5.866874