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- Title
Climate Change and Potential Demise of the Indian Deserts.
- Authors
Rajesh, P. V.; Goswami, B. N.
- Abstract
In contrast to the "wet gets wetter and dry gets drier" paradigm, here, using observations and climate model simulations, we show that the mean rainfall over the semi‐arid northwest parts of India and Pakistan has increased by 10%–50% during 1901–2015 and is expected to increase by 50%–200% under moderate greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios. The GHG forcing primarily drives the westward expansion of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and is facilitated by a westward expansion of the Indian Ocean (IO) warm pool. Mechanistically, the westward expansion of ISMR is a consequence of the episodic genesis over IO and the northward propagation of an expanded Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone on a sub‐seasonal time scale. While an adaptation strategy to increased hydrological disasters is a must, harnessing the augmented rainfall would lead to a substantial boost in food productivity, bringing transformative changes in the socio‐economic condition of people in the region. Plain Language Summary: An apparent eastward shift of the Indian monsoon has led to the arid conditions in the west and north‐west regions of India where monsoon was once active, and the Indus Valley civilizations thrived (5,300–3,300‐year BP). A reversal of the process and a westward expansion of the present‐day Indian monsoon would transform the west and north‐west India to a humid "monsoonal" climate and provide food security to the expanding population of the country. The present study shows that the Indian monsoon is indeed expanding to the west with 10% decrease of mean rainfall in the northeast and 25% increase in the west and north‐west during the historical period with a potential of 50%–100% increase in the north‐west under SSP2–4.5. Harvesting the increased rainfall has the potential for significant increase in food productivity bringing in transformative changes in the socio‐economic condition of people of the region. Key Points: Global warming could potentially cause a westward expansion of the Indian monsoonRainfall in northwest India and Pakistan has increased and will continue to rise due to greenhouse gasesIncreased monsoon rainfall can improve food productivity and socio‐economic conditions in the region
- Subjects
PAKISTAN; INDIA; INDUS civilization; CLIMATE change; ATMOSPHERIC models; RAINFALL; GLOBAL warming; DESERTS
- Publication
Earth's Future, 2023, Vol 11, Issue 8, p1
- ISSN
2328-4277
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1029/2022EF003459