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- Title
Using Highly Detailed Administrative Data to Predict Pneumonia Mortality.
- Authors
Rothberg, Michael B.; Pekow, Penelope S.; Priya, Aruna; Zilberberg, Marya D.; Belforti, Raquel; Skiest, Daniel; Lagu, Tara; Higgins, Thomas L.; Lindenauer, Peter K.
- Abstract
Background: Mortality prediction models generally require clinical data or are derived from information coded at discharge, limiting adjustment for presenting severity of illness in observational studies using administrative data. Objectives: To develop and validate a mortality prediction model using administrative data available in the first 2 hospital days. Research Design: After dividing the dataset into derivation and validation sets, we created a hierarchical generalized linear mortality model that included patient demographics, comorbidities, medications, therapies, and diagnostic tests administered in the first 2 hospital days. We then applied the model to the validation set. Subjects: Patients aged ≥18 years admitted with pneumonia between July 2007 and June 2010 to 347 hospitals in Premier, Inc.’s Perspective database. Measures: In hospital mortality. Results: The derivation cohort included 200,870 patients and the validation cohort had 50,037. Mortality was 7.2%. In the multivariable model, 3 demographic factors, 25 comorbidities, 41 medications, 7 diagnostic tests, and 9 treatments were associated with mortality. Factors that were most strongly associated with mortality included receipt of vasopressors, non-invasive ventilation, and bicarbonate. The model had a c-statistic of 0.85 in both cohorts. In the validation cohort, deciles of predicted risk ranged from 0.3% to 34.3% with observed risk over the same deciles from 0.1% to 33.7%. Conclusions: A mortality model based on detailed administrative data available in the first 2 hospital days had good discrimination and calibration. The model compares favorably to clinically based prediction models and may be useful in observational studies when clinical data are not available.
- Subjects
PNEUMONIA treatment; MORTALITY; PREDICTION models; DATA analysis; HOSPITAL administration; HOSPITAL admission &; discharge
- Publication
PLoS ONE, 2014, Vol 9, Issue 1, p1
- ISSN
1932-6203
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1371/journal.pone.0087382