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- Title
Survival Estimates after Stopping Sorafenib in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma: NEXT Score Development and Validation.
- Authors
Hye Won Lee; Hyun Soo Kim; Seung Up Kim; Do Young Kim; Beom Kyung Kim; Jun Yong Park; Sang Hoon Ahn; Mi Young Jeon; Ja Yoon Heo; Soo Young Park; Yu Rim Lee; Sun Kyung Jang; Su Hyun Lee; Se Young Jang; Won Young Tak; Kwang-Hyub Han
- Abstract
Background/Aims: Limited information is available regarding patient survival after sorafenib discontinuation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Thus, we developed and validated a novel survival prediction model. Methods: Clinical data from 409 patients with HCC who stopped taking sorafenib between September 2008 and February 2015 were reviewed. Results: In the training cohort, four factors were independent negative predictors of survival (p<0.05). Based on the β regression coefficient of each factor, we established the NEXT score (Survival after Stopping Nexavar Treatment), allocating 1 point each for an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group score ≥2, Child-Pugh class B or C, serum sodium ≤135 mEq/L, and α-fetoprotein >400 ng/mL. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values to predict 1-, 3-, and 6-month survival rates were 0.805, 0.809, and 0.774, respectively, in the training cohort and 0.783, 0.728, and 0.673, respectively, in the validation cohort (n=137). When the training and validation cohorts were stratified into three risk groups (NEXT score 0 [low-risk] vs 1 to 2 [intermediate-risk] vs 3 to 4 [high-risk]), survival differed significantly between the groups (p<0.05, log-rank test). Conclusions: In patients with HCC, survival after stopping sorafenib is poor. However, risk estimates based on a new "NEXT score" may help predict survival and prognosis even in patients who discontinue sorafenib treatment.
- Subjects
LIVER cancer patients; SORAFENIB; PREDICTION models; REGRESSION analysis; RECEIVER operating characteristic curves; THERAPEUTICS
- Publication
Gut & Liver, 2017, Vol 11, Issue 5, p693
- ISSN
1976-2283
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.5009/gnl16391