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- Title
Future Performance Prediction of Research Infrastructure Based on Past Performance.
- Authors
WU Di; PENG Rui; SUN Dongbai; XU Wenchao; QIAO Lili
- Abstract
Research infrastructure is crucial for development of research, and thus the evaluation of its performance is important. However, existing researches mostly focus on its past observations, lacking of a prediction for future. In this paper, procedures are proposed to predict the distribution for the number of papers published in a certain future year. The publication reliability, which is defined as the probability that the number of published papers in the future year is bigger than a pre-specified number, is evaluated. Illustrative examples are proposed to show the applications of the model.
- Subjects
INFRASTRUCTURE (Economics); RESEARCH &; development; PROBABILITY theory; STANDARD deviations; LOGARITHMIC functions
- Publication
Journal of Donghua University (English Edition), 2018, Vol 35, Issue 4, p336
- ISSN
1672-5220
- Publication type
Article