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- Title
Predictability of the Ningaloo Niño/Niña.
- Authors
Takeshi Doi; Swadhin K. Behera; Toshio Yamagata
- Abstract
The seasonal prediction of the coastal oceanic warm event off West Australia, recently named the Ningaloo Niño, is explored by use of a state-of-the-art ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation model. The Ningaloo Niño/Niña, which generally matures in austral summer, is found to be predictable two seasons ahead. In particular, the unprecedented extreme warm event in February 2011 was successfully predicted 9 months in advance. The successful prediction of the Ningaloo Niño is mainly due to the high prediction skill of La Niña in the Pacific. However, the model deficiency to underestimate its early evolution and peak amplitude needs to be improved. Since the Ningaloo Niño/Niña has potential impacts on regional societies and industries through extreme events, the present success of its prediction may encourage development of its early warning system
- Subjects
NINGALOO Reef (W.A.); LONG-range weather forecasting; SEASONAL variations in the ocean; OCEAN temperature; SEA level
- Publication
Scientific Reports, 2013, p1
- ISSN
2045-2322
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1038/srep02892