We found a match
Your institution may have rights to this item. Sign in to continue.
- Title
Biodiversity conservation: Uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk.
- Authors
Thuiller, Wilfried; Araújo, Miguel B.; Pearson, Richard G.; Whittaker, Robert J.; Brotons, Lluís; Lavorel, Sandra
- Abstract
Arising from: C. D. Thomas et al. 427, 145-148 (2004); see also communication from Buckley & Roughgarden and communication from Harte et al.;Thomas et al. replyThomas et al. model species-distribution responses to a range of climate-warming scenarios and use a novel application of the species-area relationship to estimate that 15-37% of modelled species in various regions of the world will be committed to extinction by 2050. Although we acknowledge the efforts that they make to measure the uncertainties associated with different climate scenarios, species' dispersal abilities and z values (predictions ranged from 5.6% to 78.6% extinctions), we find that two additional sources of uncertainty may substantially increase the variability in predictions.
- Subjects
CLIMATE change; BIODIVERSITY; CLIMATOLOGY; BIOLOGICAL extinction; SPECIES; BIOLOGY
- Publication
Nature, 2004, Vol 430, Issue 6995, p1
- ISSN
0028-0836
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1038/nature02716