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- Title
Consistent Predictability of the Ocean State Ocean Model Using Information Theory and Flushing Timescales.
- Authors
Sane, Aakash; Fox‐Kemper, Baylor; Ullman, David S.; Kincaid, Christopher; Rothstein, Lewis
- Abstract
The Ocean State Ocean Model (OSOM) is an application of the Regional Ocean Modeling System spanning the Rhode Island waterways, including Narragansett Bay, Mt. Hope Bay, larger rivers, and the Block Island Shelf circulation from Long Island to Nantucket. This study discusses the physical aspects of the estuary (Narragansett and Mount Hope Bays and larger rivers) to evaluate physical circulation predictability. This estimate is intended to help decide if a forecast and prediction system is warranted, to prepare for coupling with biogeochemistry and fisheries models with widely disparate timescales, and to find the spin‐up time needed to establish the climatological circulation of the region. Perturbed initial condition ensemble simulations are combined with metrics from information theory to quantify the predictability of the OSOM forecast system–i.e., how long anomalies from different initial conditions persist. The predictability timescale in this model agrees with readily estimable timescales such as the freshwater flushing timescale evaluated using the total exchange flow (TEF) framework, indicating that the estuarine dynamics rather than chaotic transport is the dominant model behavior limiting predictions. The predictability of the OSOM is ∼7–40 days, varying with parameters, region, and season. Plain Language Summary: A new model of waterways near Rhode Island is introduced and examined. The model is intended for studying the physical circulation of this region and its ecosystem changes. This study uses a variety of metrics to assess for how long a forecast with this model might be useful (i.e., how long the model's initial state determines its behavior) and relatedly how long to run (or spin up) the model to have poorly known initial conditions not affect the result systematically. Key Points: Article introduces the Ocean State Ocean Model (OSOM), a Regional Ocean Modeling System implementation focused on the Rhode Island regionThe predictability of the OSOM is evaluated using information theory and initial condition ensembles in summer and winter conditionsThe flushing time scales (freshwater and salinity) of Narragansett and Mt. Hope Bays are calculated and resemble the predictability timescales, indicating that predictability is largely governed by the estuarine circulation in this model
- Subjects
INFORMATION theory; BIOGEOCHEMISTRY; CLIMATOLOGY; WEATHER forecasting; WASTEWATER treatment; CLIMATE change
- Publication
Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans, 2021, Vol 126, Issue 7, p1
- ISSN
2169-9275
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1029/2020JC016875