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- Title
Using surveillance data for early warning modelling of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Europe reveals a seasonal shift in transmission, 2016–2022.
- Authors
Jung Kjær, Lene; Ward, Michael P.; Boklund, Anette Ella; Larsen, Lars Erik; Hjulsager, Charlotte Kristiane; Kirkeby, Carsten Thure
- Abstract
Avian influenza in wild birds and poultry flocks constitutes a problem for animal welfare, food security and public health. In recent years there have been increasing numbers of outbreaks in Europe, with many poultry flocks culled after being infected with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Continuous monitoring is crucial to enable timely implementation of control to prevent HPAI spread from wild birds to poultry and between poultry flocks within a country. We here utilize readily available public surveillance data and time-series models to predict HPAI detections within European countries and show a seasonal shift that happened during 2021–2022. The output is models capable of monitoring the weekly risk of HPAI outbreaks, to support decision making.
- Subjects
EUROPE; AVIAN influenza; ANIMAL welfare; POULTRY farms; FOOD security; BIRD food; DECISION making; POULTRY; PUBLIC health
- Publication
Scientific Reports, 2023, Vol 13, Issue 1, p1
- ISSN
2045-2322
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1038/s41598-023-42660-7