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- Title
Subsea permafrost and associated methane hydrate stability zone: how long can they survive in the future?
- Authors
Malakhova, Valentina V.; Eliseev, Alexey V.
- Abstract
The simulations with SMILES (the Sediment Model Invented for Long-tErm Simulations) for 100 kyr in the future driven by the output of an Earth System Model with internally calculated ice sheets are performed. This Earth System Model was forced by idealised scenarios of CO 2 emissions and by changes of the parameters of the Earth's orbit. The simulations are carried out with different values of the heat flux from the Earth's interior. We neglected the possible impact of hydrostatic pressure changes due to future sea level changes on freeze/thaw temperature and on thermodynamic stability of methane hydrates. We found that at the outer shelf, permafrost disappears either before the onset of the anthropogenic emissions or during a few centuries after it. In contrast, for the middle and shallow parts of the shelf, in the CO 2 -emission forced runs, the subsea permafrost survives, at least, for 5 kyr after the emission onset or even for much longer. At the same parts of the shelf, methane hydrate stability zone (MHSZ) disappears not earlier than at 3 kyr after the CO 2 emission onset. Both permafrost thaw and methane hydrate stability zone shrinking occur mostly from the bottom and depend strongly on the heat flux from the Earth's interior. However, permafrost thaw from the top is basically determined by the applied CO 2 forcing scenario. In general, the CO 2 -induced warming in our simulations is able to enhance the pan-Arctic subsea permafrost loss severalfold during 1 kyr after the emissions onset, but it is less important for the respective MHSZ loss. The dynamics of MHSZ is largely independent on the chosen climate projection, at least for the next several thousand years.
- Subjects
METHANE hydrates; PERMAFROST; EARTH'S orbit; INTERNAL structure of the Earth; CARBON emissions; ATMOSPHERIC methane; TUNDRAS
- Publication
Theoretical & Applied Climatology, 2024, Vol 155, Issue 4, p3329
- ISSN
0177-798X
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s00704-023-04804-7