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- Title
Emerging unprecedented lake ice loss in climate change projections.
- Authors
Huang, Lei; Timmermann, Axel; Lee, Sun-Seon; Rodgers, Keith B.; Yamaguchi, Ryohei; Chung, Eui-Seok
- Abstract
Seasonal ice in lakes plays an important role for local communities and lake ecosystems. Here we use Large Ensemble simulations conducted with the Community Earth System Model version 2, which includes a lake simulator, to quantify the response of lake ice to greenhouse warming and to determine emergence patterns of anthropogenic lake ice loss. Our model simulations show that the average duration of ice coverage and maximum ice thickness are projected to decrease over the next 80 years by 38 days and 0.23 m, respectively. In the Canadian Arctic, lake ice loss is accelerated by the cold-season polar amplification. Lake ice on the Tibetan Plateau decreases rapidly due to a combination of strong insolation forcing and ice-albedo feedbacks. Comparing the anthropogenic signal with natural variability represented by the Large Ensemble, we find that lake ecosystems in these regions may be exposed to no-analogue ice coverage within the next 4-5 decades. Many lakes on Earth are covered by seasonal ice, and as lake ice loss has been increasing, it is ever more important to quantify this. Here the authors present a fully coupled lake ice model projection as a part of the new CESM2 large ensemble modelling project and show that unprecedented lake ice loss is emerging globally as a result of anthropogenic-induced warming.
- Subjects
TIBETAN Plateau; ICE on rivers, lakes, etc.; CLIMATE change; COMMUNITIES; SOLAR radiation; ICE
- Publication
Nature Communications, 2022, Vol 13, Issue 1, p1
- ISSN
2041-1723
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1038/s41467-022-33495-3