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- Title
The notable global heterogeneity in the distribution of COVID-19 cases and the association with pre-existing parasitic diseases.
- Authors
Chang, Taehee; Jung, Bong-Kwang; Chai, Jong-Yil; Cho, Sung-il
- Abstract
Background: The coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory disease that has caused extensive ravages worldwide since being declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). Unlike initially predicted by WHO, the incidence and severity of COVID-19 appeared milder in many Low-to-Middle-Income Countries (LMIC). To explain this noticeable disparity between countries, many hypotheses, including socio-demographic and geographic factors, have been put forward. This study aimed to estimate the possible association of parasitic diseases with COVID-19 as either protective agents or potential risk factors. Methods/Principal findings: A country-level ecological study using publicly available data of countries was conducted. We conceptualized the true number of COVID-19 infections based on a function of test positivity rate (TPR) and employed linear regression analysis to assess the association between the outcome and parasitic diseases. We considered demographic, socioeconomic, and geographic confounders previously suggested. A notable heterogeneity was observed across WHO regions. The countries in Africa (AFRO) showed the lowest rates of COVID-19 incidence, and the countries in the Americas (AMRO) presented the highest. The multivariable model results were computed using 165 countries, excluding missing values. In the models analyzed, lower COVID-19 incidence rates were consistently observed in malaria-endemic countries, even accounting for potential confounding variables, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, the population aged 65 and above, and differences in the duration of COVID-19. However, the other parasitic diseases were not significantly associated with the spread of the pandemic. Conclusions/Significance: This study suggests that malaria prevalence is an essential factor that explains variability in the observed incidence of COVID-19 cases at the national level. Potential associations of COVID-19 with schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiases (STHs) are worthy of further investigation but appeared unlikely, based on this analysis, to be critical factors of the variability in COVID-19 epidemic trends. The quality of publicly accessible data and its ecological design constrained our research, with fundamental disparities in monitoring and testing capabilities between countries. Research at the subnational or individual level should be conducted to explore hypotheses further. Author summary: SARS-CoV-2 has spread fast worldwide, yet the first pandemic waves in LMICs looked weaker than mathematical models had predicted. Suggestions for this observed disparity include socio-demographic and geographic factors and immunological modulation caused by exposure to endemic parasite infections. In countries where parasitic diseases are widespread, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), residents may have been coinfected with COVID-19 and pre-existing parasitic diseases due to the rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, we performed a nation-level ecological analysis to describe trends in primary SARS-CoV-2 outcomes by country and investigate potential correlations between these outcomes and pre-existing parasitic diseases. Our results suggest that malaria prevalence is a crucial factor to explain variation in COVID-19 incidence at the national scale, with a substantial relationship persisting even when putative confounders were adjusted. While we note that causal inference cannot be proved owing to insufficient data and hidden confounders, this will aid in generating new hypotheses and identifying intervention strategies to reduce NTDs and malaria in the context of the coronavirus pandemic.
- Subjects
SUB-Saharan Africa; PARASITIC diseases; COVID-19 pandemic; WORLD Health Organization; ENDEMIC diseases; COVID-19; CORONAVIRUS diseases; RESPIRATORY diseases
- Publication
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2022, Vol 16, Issue 10, p1
- ISSN
1935-2727
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010826