We found a match
Your institution may have rights to this item. Sign in to continue.
- Title
Improving earthquake forecasting by correlations between strong earthquakes and NOAA electron bursts.
- Authors
Fidani, Cristiano
- Abstract
NOAA polar orbiting satellite electron flux data have been studied for their time correlations with earthquakes. Electron and proton bursts have also been studied when precipitating into the atmosphere, in order to distinguish correlations with seismic activity from seasonal variations of particle fluxes and solar activity. Data from the dusk/noon NOAA-15 have been analysed using a set of adiabatic coordinates. Specifically, electron and proton data from July 1998 to December 2014 have been compared with nearly 1500 main shocks occurring worldwide during the same period, all with magnitudes greater than or equal to 6. When considering 30 - 100 keV precipitating electron bursts, detected by the vertical NOAA-15 telescope and earthquake epicentre projections at altitudes greater than 1400 km, a significant correlation was observed. The electron precipitation excesses were detected 2 - 3 hrs prior to large seismic events. The stability of this correlation was observed also when considering different electron bursts at each satellite semi-orbit; even if the correlation distribution was no longer a Poissonian. The significance of the correlation peak was evaluated utilising a super-Poissonian distribution. The observation of precipitating electron bursts was used to calculate an increasing probability of strong earthquake occurrence for the Indonesian Region.
- Subjects
EARTHQUAKES; UNITED States. National Oceanic &; Atmospheric Administration; PROTONS; SEISMIC event location; IONOSPHERE
- Publication
Terrestrial, Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences, 2018, Vol 29, Issue 2, p117
- ISSN
1017-0839
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.3319/TAO.2017.10.06.01