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- Title
Predictors of failure to detect early hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B who received regular surveillance.
- Authors
Chon, Y. E.; Jung, K. S.; Kim, M.‐J.; Choi, J.‐Y.; An, C.; Park, J. Y.; Ahn, S. H.; Kim, B. K.; Kim, S. U.; Park, H.; Hwang, S. K.; Rim, K. S.; Han, K.‐H.; Kim, D. Y.
- Abstract
Summary: Background: A proportion of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients are diagnosed with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) despite regular surveillance. Aims: To determine predictors for HCC detection failure in CHB patients who underwent regular surveillance. Methods: CHB patients with well‐preserved liver function, who underwent ultrasonography and alpha‐foetoprotein (AFP) analysis every 6 months, were enrolled. Cox regression analysis was used to identify predictors for detection failure, defined as HCC initially diagnosed at Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage B or C. Results: Of the 4590 CHB patients (mean age, 52.1 years; men, 61.6%), 169 patients were diagnosed with HCC (3.68%) and 35 (20.7%) HCC patients were initially diagnosed with HCC BCLC stage B or C. The cumulative incidence of HCC detection failure was 0.2% at year 1 and 1.3% at year 5. Multivariate analyses indicated that cirrhosis (hazard ratio [HR], 3.078; 95% CI, 1.389‐6.821; <italic>P</italic> = 0.006), AFP levels ≥9 ng/mL (HR, 5.235; 95% CI, 2.307‐11.957; <italic>P</italic> = 0.010), and diabetes mellitus (HR, 3.336; 95% CI, 1.341‐8.296; <italic>P</italic> = 0.010) were independent predictors of HCC detection failure. Another model that incorporated liver stiffness (LS) values identified LS values ≥11.7 kPa (HR, 11.045; 95% CI, 2.066‐59.037; <italic>P</italic> = 0.005) and AFP levels ≥9 ng/mL (HR, 4.802; 95% CI, 1.613‐14.297; <italic>P</italic> = 0.005) as predictors of detection failure. Conclusions: In CHB patients undergoing regular surveillance with ultrasonography and alpha‐foetoprotein (AFP) analysis every 6 months, the HCC detection failure rate was not high (0.8% per person; 0.1% per test). However, careful attention should be paid in patients with advanced liver fibrosis (clinical cirrhosis or LS value >11.7 kPa), high AFP levels, or diabetes mellitus, who are prone to surveillance failure.
- Subjects
LIVER cancer patients; CHRONIC hepatitis B; ALPHA fetoproteins; ULTRASONIC imaging; CARCINOMA
- Publication
Alimentary Pharmacology & Therapeutics, 2018, Vol 47, Issue 8, p1201
- ISSN
0269-2813
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1111/apt.14578