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- Title
Cohort-Derived Machine Learning Models for Individual Prediction of Chronic Kidney Disease in People Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus: A Prospective Multicenter Cohort Study.
- Authors
Roth, Jan A; Radevski, Gorjan; Marzolini, Catia; Rauch, Andri; Günthard, Huldrych F; Kouyos, Roger D; Fux, Christoph A; Scherrer, Alexandra U; Calmy, Alexandra; Cavassini, Matthias; Kahlert, Christian R; Bernasconi, Enos; Bogojeska, Jasmina; Battegay, Manuel; (SHCS), Swiss HIV Cohort Study; Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS)
- Abstract
<bold>Background: </bold>It is unclear whether data-driven machine learning models, which are trained on large epidemiological cohorts, may improve prediction of comorbidities in people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).<bold>Methods: </bold>In this proof-of-concept study, we included people living with HIV in the prospective Swiss HIV Cohort Study with a first estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) >60 mL/minute/1.73 m2 after 1 January 2002. Our primary outcome was chronic kidney disease (CKD)-defined as confirmed decrease in eGFR ≤60 mL/minute/1.73 m2 over 3 months apart. We split the cohort data into a training set (80%), validation set (10%), and test set (10%), stratified for CKD status and follow-up length.<bold>Results: </bold>Of 12 761 eligible individuals (median baseline eGFR, 103 mL/minute/1.73 m2), 1192 (9%) developed a CKD after a median of 8 years. We used 64 static and 502 time-changing variables: Across prediction horizons and algorithms and in contrast to expert-based standard models, most machine learning models achieved state-of-the-art predictive performances with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve and precision recall curve ranging from 0.926 to 0.996 and from 0.631 to 0.956, respectively.<bold>Conclusions: </bold>In people living with HIV, we observed state-of-the-art performances in forecasting individual CKD onsets with different machine learning algorithms.
- Subjects
SWITZERLAND; HIV; CHRONIC kidney failure; MACHINE learning; RECEIVER operating characteristic curves; HIV-positive persons; HIV infection epidemiology; HIV infection complications; CHRONIC kidney failure complications; HIV infections; GLOMERULAR filtration rate; RESEARCH; PREDICTIVE tests; EVALUATION research; COMPARATIVE studies; HEALTH attitudes; RESEARCH funding; LONGITUDINAL method
- Publication
Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2021, Vol 224, Issue 7, p1198
- ISSN
0022-1899
- Publication type
journal article
- DOI
10.1093/infdis/jiaa236