We found a match
Your institution may have rights to this item. Sign in to continue.
- Title
Global Distribution of the Skill of Tropical Cyclone Activity Forecasts on Short- to Medium-Range Time Scales.
- Authors
Yamaguchi, Munehiko; Vitart, Frédéric; Lang, Simon T. K.; Magnusson, Linus; Elsberry, Russell L.; Elliott, Grant; Kyouda, Masayuki; Nakazawa, Tetsuo
- Abstract
Operational global medium-range ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity (genesis plus the subsequent track) are systematically evaluated to understand the skill of the state-of-the-art ensembles in forecasting TC activity as well as the relative benefits of a multicenter grand ensemble with respect to a single-model ensemble. The global ECMWF, JMA, NCEP, and UKMO ensembles are evaluated from 2010 to 2013 in seven TC basins around the world. The verification metric is the Brier skill score (BSS), which is calculated within a 3-day time window over a forecast length of 2 weeks to examine the skill from short- to medium-range time scales (0-14 days). These operational global medium-range ensembles are capable of providing guidance on TC activity forecasts that extends into week 2. Multicenter grand ensembles (MCGEs) tend to have better forecast skill (larger BSSs) than does the best single-model ensemble, which is the ECMWF ensemble in most verification time windows and most TC basins. The relative benefit of the MCGEs is relatively large in the north Indian Ocean and TC basins in the Southern Hemisphere where the BSS of the single-model ensemble is relatively small. The BSS metric and the reliability are found to be sensitive to the choice of threshold wind values that are used to define the model TCs.
- Subjects
TROPICAL cyclones; WEATHER forecasting; METEOROLOGICAL observations; CYCLOGENESIS; GLOBAL Observing System (Meteorology)
- Publication
Weather & Forecasting, 2015, Vol 30, Issue 6, p1695
- ISSN
0882-8156
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1175/WAF-D-14-00136.1