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- Title
Evaluation and uncertainty investigation of the NO<sub>2</sub>, CO and NH<sub>3</sub> modeling over China under the framework of MICS-Asia III.
- Authors
Lei Kong; Xiao Tang; Jiang Zhu; Zifa Wang; Fu, Joshua S.; Xuemei Wang; Syuichi Itahashi; Kazuyo Yamaji; Tatsuya Nagashima; Hyo-Jung Lee; Cheol-Hee Kim; Chuan-Yao Lin; Lei Chen; Meigen Zhang; Zhining Tao; Jie Li; Mizuo Kajino; Hong Liao; Kengo Sudo; Yuesi Wang
- Abstract
Despite significant progress in improving chemical transport models (CTMs), applications of these modeling endeavours are still subject to the large and complex model uncertainty. Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia III (MICS-Asia III) provides the opportunity to assess the capability and uncertainty of current CTMs in East Asia applications. In this study, we evaluated the multi-model simulations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and ammonia (NH3) over China under the framework of MICS-Asia III. Compared with MICS-Asia II, modeling results were provided by a larger number of independent groups from different countries/regions and covered a longer period of time (one-full year). Furthermore, most of these groups used a common emission inventory, common meteorological inputs, and the same modeling domain and horizontal resolutions. New observations over North China Plain (NCP) and Peral River Delta (PRD) were also available in MICS-Asia III, allowing model evaluations over highly industrialized regions. The results show that most models well captured the monthly and spatial patterns of NO2 in NCP though NO2 levels were slightly underestimated. Relatively poor performance in NO2 simulations was found in PRD with larger root mean square error and lower spatial correlation coefficients, possibly due to the relative coarse model resolutions. All models significantly underpredicted CO concentrations both in NCP and PRD, with annual mean concentrations 65.4% and 61.4% underestimated by the ensemble mean respectively. Such large underestimations suggest that CO emissions might be underestimated in current emission inventory. In contrast to the good skills in simulating the monthly variations of NO2 and CO concentrations, all models failed to reproduce the observed monthly variations of NH3 concentrations in NCP. Most models mismatched the observed peak in July and showed negative correlation coefficients with observations, which may be closely related to the uncertainty in the monthly variations of NH3 emissions and the NH3 gas-aerosol partitioning. Finally, inter-comparisons of these model results were conducted to quantify the impacts of model uncertainty on the simulations of these gases, which are shown increase with the reactivity of species. Models contained more uncertainty in the NH3 simulations. This suggests that for some highly active and/or short-lived primary pollutants, like NH3, model uncertainty can also take a great part in the forecast uncertainty in addition to the emission uncertainty. Based on these results, some recommendations are made for future studies.
- Subjects
ASIA; CHINA; EAST Asia; AIR pollutants; STANDARD deviations; EMISSION inventories
- Publication
Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics Discussions, 2019, p1
- ISSN
1680-7367
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.5194/acp-2018-1158