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- Title
Estimating Survival Probabilities of Advanced Gastric Cancer Patients in the Second-Line Setting: The Gastric Life Nomogram.
- Authors
Pietrantonio, Filippo; Barretta, Francesco; Fanotto, Valentina; Park, Se Hoon; Morano, Federica; Fucà, Giovanni; Niger, Monica; Prisciandaro, Michele; Silvestris, Nicola; Bergamo, Francesca; Fornaro, Lorenzo; Bordonaro, Roberto; Rimassa, Lorenza; Santini, Daniele; Tomasello, Gianluca; Antonuzzo, Lorenzo; Noventa, Silvia; Avallone, Antonio; Leone, Francesco; Faloppi, Luca
- Abstract
Objective: We built and externally validated a nomogram for predicting the overall survival (OS) probability of advanced gastric cancer patients receiving second-line treatment. Methods: The nomogram was developed on a set of 320 Italian patients and validated on two independent sets (295 Italian and 172 Korean patients). Putative prognostic variables were selected using a random forest model and included in the multivariable Cox model. The nomogram's performance was evaluated by calibration plot and C index. Results: ECOG performance status, neutrophils to lymphocytes ratio, and peritoneal involvement were selected and included into the multivariable model. The C index was 0.72 (95% CI 0.68–0.75) in the development set, 0.69 (95% CI 0.65–0.73) in the Italian validation set, but only 0.57 (95% CI 0.52–0.62) in the Korean set. While Italian calibrations were quite good, the Korean one was poor. Regarding 6-month OS predictions, calibration was best in both Caucasian cohorts and worst the in Asian one. Conclusions: Our nomogram may be a useful tool to predict 3- or 6-month OS in Caucasian gastric cancer patients eligible for second-line therapy. Based on three easy-to-collect variables, the Gastric Life nomogram may help clinicians improve patient selection for second-line treatments and assist in clinical trial enrollment.
- Subjects
ITALY; KOREA; ASIANS; STOMACH tumors; CONFIDENCE intervals; MULTIVARIATE analysis; NEUTROPHILS; PROBABILITY theory; SURVIVAL; TUMOR classification; WHITE people; PROPORTIONAL hazards models; STATISTICAL models; LEUKOCYTE count; LYMPHOCYTE count; PROGNOSIS; TUMOR treatment
- Publication
Oncology, 2018, Vol 95, Issue 6, p344
- ISSN
0030-2414
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1159/000491753