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- Title
How habitat factors affect an Aedes mosquitoes driven outbreak at temperate latitudes: The case of the Chikungunya virus in Italy.
- Authors
Solimini, Angelo; Virgillito, Chiara; Manica, Mattia; Poletti, Piero; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Marini, Giovanni; Rosà, Roberto; Filipponi, Federico; Scognamiglio, Paola; Vairo, Francesco; Caputo, Beniamino
- Abstract
Background: Outbreaks of Aedes-borne diseases in temperate areas are not frequent, and limited in number of cases. We investigate the associations between habitat factors and temperature on individuals' risk of chikungunya (CHIKV) in a non-endemic area by spatially analyzing the data from the 2017 Italian outbreak. Methodology/Principal findings: We adopted a case-control study design to analyze the association between land-cover variables, temperature, and human population density with CHIKV cases. The observational unit was the area, at different scales, surrounding the residence of each CHIKV notified case. The statistical analysis was conducted considering the whole dataset and separately for the resort town of Anzio and the metropolitan city of Rome, which were the two main foci of the outbreak. In Rome, a higher probability for the occurrence of CHIKV cases is associated with lower temperature (OR = 0.72; 95% CI: 0.61–0.85) and with cells with higher vegetation coverage and human population density (OR = 1.03; 95% CI: 1.00–1.05). In Anzio, CHIKV case occurrence was positively associated with human population density (OR = 1.03; 95% CI: 1.00–1.06) but not with habitat factors or temperature. Conclusion/Significance: Using temperature, human population density and vegetation coverage data as drives for CHIKV transmission, our estimates could be instrumental in assessing spatial heterogeneity in the risk of experiencing arboviral diseases in non-endemic temperate areas. Author summary: Outbreaks of Aedes-borne diseases are still sporadic events in temperate Europe. Among these, a notable example is provided by the outbreak of CHIKV in Italy in 2017. We investigated which environmental variables may be spatially associated with CHIKV cases and to what extent these variables could be used to infer the occurrence of CHIKV cases when no vector data are available. To do this, we conducted a case-control study designed to assess the relative risk of observing a CHIKV case. Our results suggest that, across areas characterized by a relatively lower temperature as well as high vegetation coverage, the risk of infection is greater in the highly urbanized areas of Rome. On the other hand, in Anzio, only human population density was found to be positively associated with the likelihood of observing a CHIKV case. These preliminary findings may help identify vulnerable areas to be monitored and to be prioritized by integrated vector management as soon as the autochthonous transmission of an Aedes-borne disease is uncovered.
- Subjects
ROME; ITALY; CHIKUNGUNYA virus; POPULATION density; AEDES; ARBOVIRUS diseases; METROPOLITAN areas; LYME disease; CHOLERA
- Publication
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2023, Vol 17, Issue 8, p1
- ISSN
1935-2727
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010655