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- Title
Waiting for the Energy Crisis: Europe and the United States on the Eve of the first Oil Shock.
- Authors
Madureiras, Nuno Luis
- Abstract
A global economic crisis is the most difficult kind of event to predict. This article asks a straightforward question: did anyone come close to anticipating the oil crisis of 1973/74, which represented a new type of historical sequence? Was the likelihood of an oil shock self-evident at the time? To answer this, I examine the degree of awareness in Europe and the United States of the three possible triggering factors: Egypt's disposition to start a war and enlist the support of oil-producers; the Arab interest in oil conservation and long-term income maximization; and the imbalance in the oil market and the delayed adjustment of oil prices. For each of these topics, I set out both what was expected and what was actually in the offing; the information available to Western analysts and that unknown; the communication noises and the flagrant bias. The conclusion pays tribute to three men -- James Akins, Pierre Wack, and Ted Newland -- who had guessed what was coming ahead, and explains why their predictions almost succeeded, while others failed.
- Subjects
UNITED States; ARAB countries; ARAB oil embargo, 1973-1974; ORGANIZATION of Petroleum Exporting Countries; PETROLEUM product sales &; prices; PETROLEUM export &; import trade; ENERGY policy; ISRAEL-Arab War, 1973; ENERGY consumption; PETROLEUM supply &; demand forecasting; TWENTIETH century; INTERNATIONAL economic relations
- Publication
Historical Social Research, 2014, Vol 39, Issue 4, p70
- ISSN
0172-6404
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.12759/hsr.39.2014.4.70-93