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- Title
Technological change as chaotic process.
- Authors
Hung, Shih‐Chang; Tu, Min‐Fen
- Abstract
In this paper, we draw upon the concepts of chaos theory to examine technological change as a pattern of punctuated equilibrium through the alternation of continuity and discontinuity across time. We advocate the application of the chaos mathematical technique of time-varying local Lyapunov exponents to estimate the rates of change, timing of technological transitions and the continuity-discontinuity loop time periods. To illustrate our framework of ideas, we investigated and compared the development of four technologies - semiconductor, display, software, and biotechnology - from 1976 to 2005, using time series patent data. Implications for theory, method, and practice are discussed.
- Subjects
CHAOS theory; INNOVATION adoption; EQUILIBRIUM; LYAPUNOV exponents; SEMICONDUCTORS; TIME series analysis; MARKETING
- Publication
R&D Management, 2011, Vol 41, Issue 4, p378
- ISSN
0033-6807
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1111/j.1467-9310.2011.00641.x