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- Title
The Economic Impact of Prime Minister Johnson's New Brexit Deal.
- Authors
Hantzsche, Arno; Young, Garry
- Abstract
On 17 October 2019, the UK government and its EU counterparts concluded a renegotiation of the previous withdrawal agreement and political declaration which sets out the framework for their future relationship. The government hoped that this would enable the UK to leave the EU on 31 October 2019 and then, after a transition period lasting to the end of 2020, trade with the EU under a free trade agreement (FTA) while negotiating new trading arrangements with other countries. In practice, the absence of a whole-UK backstop and the dual tariff regime that will operate in Northern Ireland mean that Great Britain would be able to enter a different trading relationship with the EU sooner than under the May deal. As a result of leaving the EU customs union and single market, UK-EU goods trade is assumed to be lower by 40 per cent, and UK-EU services trade is lower by 60 per cent relative to continued EU membership.
- Subjects
BRITISH withdrawal from the European Union, 2016-2020; RENEGOTIATION; ECONOMIC impact; PRIME ministers; TRADE regulation; NONTARIFF trade barriers; MACROECONOMIC models
- Publication
National Institute Economic Review, 2019, Vol 250, pF34
- ISSN
0027-9501
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1177/002795011925000104