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- Title
تحليل اقتصادي للصادرات المصرية لمحصول العنب باستخدام نموذج الجاذبية.
- Authors
دينا ممدوح عويس إ وأسماء طلعت جمعة
- Abstract
Egypt is currently facing a crisis of high exchange rates, which is considered one of the most important factors affecting the Egyptian trade balance and foreign currency earnings. Egyptian exports are considered one of the most important pillars of the country's foreign trade as they contribute to raising economic development rates by providing the necessary capital for investments. The research problem centered on grapes being one of the most important export horticultural crops in Egypt, with export quantities reaching 99.57 thousand tons valued at about 180.72 million dollars on average during the study period (2006-2022). However, grape exports were characterized by fluctuation and instability during the study period. The main objective of the research isto analyze Egypt's exports of grapes and the most important importing markets. The main results of the study were:(1) The value of the Revealed Comparative Advantage index exceeded one during the period (2006-2022), indicating a comparative advantage for Egypt's grape exports to global markets.(2) The results of the basic gravity model for the crop show that a 10% increase in the total GDP of the group of countries together leads to a 5.38% increase in the quantity of Egyptian grape exports, with statistical significance proven at the 0.01 level. Also, a 10% increase in Egypt's total GDP would lead to a 1.28% increase in the quantity of Egyptian grape exports to these countries.(3) The results of the modified gravity model indicate that a 10% increase in GDP per capita in the selected countries would lead to a 2.03% increase in the quantity of Egyptian grape exports, and a 10% increase in Egypt's GDP per capita would lead to a 2.38% increase in the quantity of Egyptian grape exports to the selected group of countries.
- Subjects
HORTICULTURAL crops; GRAVITY model (Social sciences); INTERNATIONAL trade; BALANCE of trade; FOREIGN exchange rates; COMPARATIVE advantage (International trade)
- Publication
Journal of Agricultural Economics & Social Sciences, 2024, Vol 15, Issue 8, p345
- ISSN
2090-3634
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.21608/jaess.2024.305535.1318