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- Title
Projected Poleward Migration of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis.
- Authors
Jian, Danlei; Zhao, Haikun; Klotzbach, Philip J.; Raga, Graciela B.; Gao, Jun; Cao, Jian; Wang, Chao; Ma, Zhanhong
- Abstract
The recently‐observed poleward shift in western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) genesis has increased the TC threat to East Asia. We find that the poleward shift of TC genesis since 1979 is linked to mega‐ENSO. A downscaling analysis of TC genesis latitude given the constraint of mega‐ENSO using 30 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) show a continued increasing poleward shift with additional warming. We use the dynamic genesis potential index as a TC proxy in future CMIP6 simulations. These simulations show enhanced TC formation in the subtropics and decreased TC formation in the tropics. Modeled TCs in CMIP6 high‐resolution models that well represent mega‐ENSO project future poleward shifts in TC genesis. Both observations and simulations show that extra‐tropical North Pacific sea surface temperature warming associated with mega‐ENSO are the primary driver of the TC genesis poleward shift. Our study provides new insights into climate change‐driven TC migration. Plain Language Summary: The observed poleward shift in tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the western North Pacific has increased the threat from these storms to East Asia. Until now, it remains unclear whether TC genesis will continue to move poleward in the future, due to both a relatively short reliable observational TC record as well as model inconsistencies. This study provides evidence that the poleward migration of TC genesis will likely continue due to anthropogenic warming. We find that there is a strong relationship between TC genesis latitude and a mode of Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability termed mega‐ENSO. We find using a suite of 30 climate models comprising the Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) that future poleward trends in TC genesis latitude are likely to continue. This poleward shift is observed whether using projected trends in mega‐ENSO or an index that measures the conduciveness of the environment for TC formation. Modeled tropical cyclones in high resolution simulations from CMIP6 also show a continued projected poleward shift in TC genesis. This poleward shift in TC genesis appears largely related to changes in extra‐tropical SST warming associated with mega‐ENSO. Key Points: The recently‐observed poleward shift of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is related strongly to mega‐ENSOChanges in modeled TCs and a TC proxy in a warming climate show a consistent northward TC genesis migrationExtra‐tropical sea surface temperature warming associated with mega‐ENSO appears responsible for poleward TC genesis movement
- Subjects
OCEAN temperature; GLOBAL warming; ATMOSPHERIC models; TROPICAL cyclones; LATITUDE
- Publication
Geophysical Research Letters, 2024, Vol 51, Issue 16, p1
- ISSN
0094-8276
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1029/2024GL110031