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- Title
Egy-Score Predicts Severe Hepatic Fibrosis and Cirrhosis in Egyptians With Chronic Liver Diseases: A Pilot Study.
- Authors
Alboraie, Mohamed A.; Afifi, Mahmoud E.; Elghamry, Fathy G.; Shalaby, Helmy A.; Elshennawy, Gamal E.; Abdelaziz, Ahmed A.; Shaheen, Mohamed U.; Abo El-Seoud, Amany R.
- Abstract
Background: Non-invasive methods for assessment of hepatic fibrosis are increasingly needed. Recent studies showed that combined elevation of tumor markers CA 19-9 and CA 125 is predictive of severe hepatic fibrosis or cirrhosis with high specificity. Objectives: We aimed at developing a new panel of surrogate biomarkers for prediction of the stage of hepatic fibrosis by combining tumor markers with other known biomarkers of hepatic fibrosis. Patients and Methods: A total of 92 patients with different types of chronic liver diseases (chronic hepatitis B, chronic hepatitis C and autoimmune hepatitis), were prospectively enrolled in our cohort. They were subjected to: ALT, AST, GGT, ALP, total bilirubin, INR, total cholesterol, albumin, platelet count, cancer antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9), cancer antigen 125 (CA 125), cancer antigen 15-3 (CA 15-3), haptoglobin, alpha-2-macroglobulin, apolipoprotein A1, abdominal ultrasound, liver biopsy and histological staging of hepatic fibrosis using the METAVIR system. Results: Combined elevation of CA 19-9 and CA 125 with a summated value > 37 U/mL is predictive of severe hepatic fibrosis or cirrhosis (stage F3-F4 METAVIR) with a probability of 77.6%. Multivariate analysis showed that the most relevant collection of biomarkers for prediction of stage of hepatic fibrosis is: CA 19-9, age, alpha-2- macroglobulin, total bilirubin, platelet count & albumin. We developed a new score, named the "Egy-Score", using a regression equation composed of this panel of biomarkers. Egy-Score could differentiate no or early fibrosis (stage F0-F2 METAVIR) from severe fibrosis or cirrhosis (stage F3-F4 METAVIR) with 83.7% accuracy. Conclusions: Non-invasive assessment of hepatic fibrosis could be done using the Egy-Score. Egy-Score could differentiate no or early fibrosis (stage F0-F2 METAVIR) from severe fibrosis or cirrhosis (stage F3 - F4 METAVIR) with 83.7% accuracy.
- Subjects
EGYPT; ANALYSIS of variance; BIOMARKERS; CHI-squared test; CONFIDENCE intervals; STATISTICAL correlation; ENZYME-linked immunosorbent assay; FISHER exact test; CIRRHOSIS of the liver; LIVER diseases; LONGITUDINAL method; PROBABILITY theory; STATISTICS; U-statistics; PILOT projects; DATA analysis; FIBROSIS; PREDICTIVE tests; DATA analysis software; DESCRIPTIVE statistics; DISEASE complications
- Publication
Hepatitis Monthly, 2013, Vol 13, Issue 6, p1
- ISSN
1735-143X
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.5812/hepatmon.10810