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- Title
Validation of subgrid scale ensemble precipitation forecasts based on the ECMWF's ecPoint Rainfall project.
- Authors
Tóth, Boglárka; Ihász, István
- Abstract
Nowadays, state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models successfully predict the general weather characteristics several days ahead, but forecasting extreme precipitation is quite challenging even in the short time range. In the framework of the ecPoint Project, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) developed a new innovative probabilistic post-processing tool which produces 4-day precipitation forecast as accurate as the raw ensemble forecast at day 1. In the framework of the scientific co-operation between ECMWF and the Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZ), we were invited to participate in the validation of the experimental products. Quasi operational post-processed products have been available since July 1, 2018. During our work, besides using different verification technics, a new ensemble meteogram was also developed which can support operational forecasters during extreme precipitation events. As a result of our work, products of the ecPoint Project have been included in the operational forecasting activity.
- Subjects
EUROPEAN Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (Organization); PRECIPITATION forecasting; NUMERICAL weather forecasting; METEOROLOGICAL services; PREDICTION models; COOPERATIVE research
- Publication
Idöjárás, 2021, Vol 125, Issue 3, p397
- ISSN
0324-6329
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.28974/idojaras.2021.3.2