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- Title
Comparison of regression models for serial visual field analysis.
- Authors
Lee, Jun; Nouri-Mahdavi, Kouros; Morales, Esteban; Yu, Fei; Caprioli, Joseph; Afifi, Abdelmonem
- Abstract
Purpose: Our aim was to compare fit and predictive performance effectiveness of four pointwise regression models in measuring the visual field (VF) decay rate of progression in patients with open-angle glaucoma. Methods: We selected Humphrey VF data of patients with open-angle glaucoma with a minimum follow-up time of 6 years. For each eye ( n = 798 from 588 patients), we regressed threshold sensitivity ( y) at each VF test location for the entire VF series against follow-up time ( x), with four candidate first-order regression models: (1) ordinary least-squares linear regression model ( y = β + β x); (2) nondecay exponential regression model ( y = β + βe); (3) decay exponential regression model ( $$ y \,=\, {\text{e}}^{{\beta_{0} + \beta_{1} x}} $$ ); (4) Tobit-censored, maximum-likelihood linear regression model ( y* = $$ \beta 0 + \beta 1{\text{x}} + \varepsilon $$ , ε ~ N(0, σ)), where x is follow-up time and y is threshold sensitivity. Results: The average [± standard deviation (SD)] baseline VF mean deviation (MD) was −8.2 (±5.5) dB, the mean follow-up was 8.7 (±1.9) years, and the number of follow-up VFs was 14.7 (±4.4). The decay exponential model was the best-fitting (42.7 % of locations) and best-forecasting (65.5 % of locations) model. The decay exponential model was the best prediction model in all categories of severity. Conclusions: It is not clear that the ordinary least-squares linear regression model is always the favored model for fitting and forecasting VF data in patients with glaucoma. The pointwise decay exponential regression (PER) model was the best-fitting and best-predicting model across a wide range of glaucoma severity and can be readily understood by clinicians.
- Subjects
VISUAL fields; REGRESSION analysis; GLAUCOMA; STANDARD deviations; TOBITS; OPHTHALMOLOGY; PATIENTS
- Publication
Japanese Journal of Ophthalmology, 2014, Vol 58, Issue 6, p504
- ISSN
0021-5155
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s10384-014-0341-5