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- Title
Extreme Sensitivity and Climate Tipping Points.
- Authors
Ashwin, Peter; von der Heydt, Anna S.
- Abstract
A climate state close to a tipping point will have a degenerate linear response to perturbations, which can be associated with extreme values of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this paper we contrast linearized ('instantaneous') with fully nonlinear geometric ('two-point') notions of ECS, in both presence and absence of tipping points. For a stochastic energy balance model of the global mean surface temperature with two stable regimes, we confirm that tipping events cause the appearance of extremes in both notions of ECS. Moreover, multiple regimes with different mean sensitivities are visible in the two-point ECS. We confirm some of our findings in a physics-based multi-box model of the climate system.
- Subjects
CLIMATE sensitivity; EXTREME value theory; SURFACE temperature; ATMOSPHERIC models
- Publication
Journal of Statistical Physics, 2020, Vol 179, Issue 5/6, p1531
- ISSN
0022-4715
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s10955-019-02425-x