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- Title
Seasonality, Intensity, and Duration of Rainfall Extremes Change in a Warmer Climate.
- Authors
Moustakis, Yiannis; Papalexiou, Simon Michael; Onof, Christian J; Paschalis, Athanasios
- Abstract
Precipitation extremes are expected to intensify under climate change with consequent impacts in flooding and ecosystem functioning. Here we use station data and high‐resolution simulations from the WRF convection permitting climate model (∼4 km, 1 h) over the US to assess future changes in hourly precipitation extremes. It is demonstrated that hourly precipitation extremes and storm depths are expected to intensify under climate change and what is now a 20‐year rainfall will become a 7‐year rainfall on average for ∼ 75% of gridpoints over the US. This intensification is mostly expressed as an increase in rainfall tail heaviness. Statistically significant changes in the seasonality and duration of rainfall extremes are also exhibited over ∼ 95% of the domain. Our results suggest more non‐linear future precipitation extremes with shorter spell duration that are distributed more uniformly throughout the year. Plain Language Summary: Rainfall extremes are intensifying under climate change and are expected to have an impact on ecosystem functioning and catchment flood responses. Here, we use state‐of‐the‐art high‐resolution convection permitting model simulations and station data to examine future changes in the statistical properties of rainfall extremes in a warmer climate. Our results reveal a severe intensification of rainfall extremes throughout the US in a warmer climate, with a less pronounced seasonal signal and decreased spell duration. Key Points: What is now a 20‐years rainfall will become a 7‐year rainfall for ∼75% of gridpoints over the USRainfall extreme intensification is mostly expressed with increases in tail heavinessFuture rainfall extremes are more uniformly distributed throughout the year and have shorter duration
- Subjects
CLIMATE change; ATMOSPHERIC models
- Publication
Earth's Future, 2021, Vol 9, Issue 3, p1
- ISSN
2328-4277
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1029/2020EF001824