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- Title
WELL CALIBRATED, COHERENT FORECASTING SYSTEMS.
- Authors
Berti, P.; Regazzini, E.; Rigo, P.
- Abstract
This paper introduces a definition of predictive inference based on sequential observations in the light of de Finetti's principle of coherence. It includes characterizations of coherent predictive inferences and of strategic predictive inferences. It thoroughly analyzes the concepts of well calibrated and finitarily well calibrated forecasting systems. Apropos to this subject, some new laws of large numbers are assessed with reference to finitarily additive probability distributions. These results are then used to critically confute some objections raised against the coherence principle.
- Subjects
COHERENCE (Physics); PREDICTION theory; DISTRIBUTION (Probability theory); PROBABILITY theory
- Publication
Theory of Probability & Its Applications, 1998, Vol 42, Issue 1, p82
- ISSN
0040-585X
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1137/S0040585X97975988