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- Title
Learning from others: conditioning versus averaging.
- Authors
Bradley, Richard
- Abstract
How should we revise our beliefs in response to the expressed probabilistic opinions of experts on some proposition when these experts are in disagreement? In this paper I examine the suggestion that in such circumstances we should adopt a linear average of the experts’ opinions and consider whether such a belief revision policy is compatible with Bayesian conditionalisation. By looking at situations in which full or partial deference to the expressed opinions of others is required by Bayesianism I show that only in trivial circumstances are the requirements imposed by linear averaging compatible with it.
- Subjects
AVERAGING method (Differential equations); PROBABILISTIC number theory; PROPOSITION (Logic); BAYESIAN analysis; LINEAR systems
- Publication
Theory & Decision, 2018, Vol 85, Issue 1, p5
- ISSN
0040-5833
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s11238-017-9615-y