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- Title
RECAUDACIÓN DE INGRESOS BRUTOS EN LA PROVINCIA DE SANTA CRUZ, REPÚBLICA ARGENTINA: CARACTERIZACIÓN, ESTIMACIÓN Y PRONÓSTICO CON SERIES DE TIEMPO.
- Authors
Juan Domingo, Arias-Montes
- Abstract
Tax collection in subnational governments plays an important role in the process of budget formulation and strategic planning. Although the determining factors are known, they are unknown as well as the best stochastic model that !ts it, as well as the components of: level, trend and seasonality of the tax collection function. Using the information criteria method and exponential smoothing techniques, we seek to characterize, estimate, and forecast. We observe that the probability distribution that best !ts is the log-normal. Furthermore, the Holt Winters model yields the best results. "ese data show that both the lognormal distribution and the Holt Winters additive model are methods that represent an adequate characterization, estimation, and forecast of gross revenue collection for the Province of Santa Cruz, Argentine Republic. Finally, the results of the methods seem to coincide with the estimates of the planning body, the Ministry of Economy, !nding the point estimate at an approximate value of 63 billion Argentine pesos and that produced by the Holt Winters model close to 59 million. million Argentine pesos; for the !nancial year 2023.
- Subjects
SANTA Cruz (Argentina : Province); ARGENTINA; DISTRIBUTION (Probability theory); STATISTICAL smoothing; LOGNORMAL distribution; TAX collection; SUBNATIONAL governments; WINTER festivals
- Publication
Revista Enfoques: Ciencia Política y Administración Pública, 2023, Vol 21, Issue 38, p50
- ISSN
0718-0241
- Publication type
Article